Nathan Scandella (personal)

Last Chance, Then All Bets Are Off

The election is tomorrow. Six months ago, before Obama had wrapped up the Democratic nomination, I said I thought he'd win by ten percentage points.

I personally don't think he's run a great campaign. He has done nicely (since the primaries), at not making this about race. But, he also has played it close to the vest. His VP selection was fairly safe, but not inspiring. His debate performance was acceptable, but not strong (I thought he lost the last debate). He missed golden opportunities to call out Sarah Palin on her ignorance, McCain on his foreign policy disaster in Iraq, and the GOP as a whole for its ties to Big Oil. Until the credit crisis, Big Oil should have been Public Enemy Number One for its fleecing of the American people.

I don't personally think much of a Bradley effect exists here. The Democrats have already proved that it doesn't exist for one half of the country. Republicans and Independents may not vote for Obama on account of his race, but in a country where 2/3rds of the population shamelessly spouts off bigoted anti-gay rhetoric, I don't think those folks are having any trouble telling pollsters that they're voting for McCain. Remember, The Bradley Effect doesn't address people voting on the basis of race, only the phenomenon of voting on race, and not admitting to pollsters who you're supporting. And Bradley was running in California, the state where political correctness reigns supreme over honesty.

I do think there is some validity to the idea that most polling ignores mobile-phone only voters, who primarily are young and pro-Obama. So, I think Obama will win by more than the current poll margin, which I'm consistently seeing as 6 to 7%. Also, more than a Bradley effect, I think it's possible that some moderate and conservative men may have trouble admitting that they'll vote for a softy like Obama, but within the confines of the voting booth, they'll do just that.

But again, I don't think Obama has run a great campaign, so I'll keep my projection to single digits: Obama wins by 9%. That's my bet, and I'm sticking to it. Let the Floridians-taking-off-shoes-and-socks-to-perform-the-vote-counting begin.

Posted at 09:38PM Nov 03, 2008 by Nathan in Politics  |  Comments[1]